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09/05/2010 -
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) -Texas spent the offseason loading up a new power running game that was going to get tough yards and first downs when they need it.
The Longhorns still have some work to do.
By the numbers, Texas was able to grind out 197 yards on 46 carries in a steady 34-17 season-opening win over Rice. Tre' Newton, who had lost the starting tailback job to Cody Johnson, punched in three touchdowns on runs of 1, 1 and 2 yards.
Those numbers don't show how a Rice team that went 2-10 last season stuffed Texas on four straight runs inside the Owls' 4-yard line on the first drive, or how they held Texas to 76 yards on 21 carries in the first half.
Another 3rd-and-2 in the third quarter produced only one yard when Texas was trying to get out from deep inside its own half of the field.
That new power rushing attack was pretty punchless at key times in the game.
``I do know that when you run the ball, most of your rushing yards are going to come late in the third and fourth quarter. That happened some tonight, but you have to be patient, even more than I am right now. I need to continue to work on my patience,'' Texas coach Mack Brown said.
Newton led Texas with 61 yards but averaged just 3.4 yards. Johnson, whose 5-foot-11, 250-pound frame had made him Texas' goal-line specialist the previous two seasons, carried the ball four straight times on the goal line on Texas' first drive but couldn't get in the end zone. On fourth down, Texas called a sweep right and Johnson lost four yards.
Johnson finished with 59 yards but didn't score. Fozzy Whittaker added 51 yards on nine carries.
``We got the win, so that is the most important goal,'' Newton said. ``I don't know what kind of grade I would give us.''
Brown said he'd wait to evaluate game film to decide who will start next weekend against Wyoming. The running backs were playing behind a line with three new starters.
``Sometimes you see a great run, and there was a huge hole. We'll want to see who made the yards when things aren't there,'' Brown said. ``All three of them are experienced, and all three of them played well. But I feel like that is something that we'll have to see on film.''
Texas fans have gotten used to watching the Longhorns light up the scoreboard after six seasons of Vince Young and Colt McCoy at quarterback. Saturday's grind-it-out attack limited the throws of new starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who went 14 of 24 for 172 yards but no touchdowns.
Unlike McCoy the last four seasons, Gilbert was rarely in the shotgun against the Owls. His longest completion was a 47-yard strike to Malcolm Williams down the middle in the third quarter.
``We did a good job running the ball for the most part, but we've got a long way to go before we're where we want to be as a team,'' Gilbert said.
Texas left a lot of points on the field.
Besides the goal-line stand by Rice in the first quarter, Texas defensive backs Chykie Brown and Aaron Williams both dropped potential interceptions that should have resulted in easy touchdowns, and new kicker Justin Tucker missed field goals of 44 and 54 yards. Tucker also made kicks of 51 and 26 yards.
``We better get a bunch better next week before Wyoming, or we are going to have trouble winning,'' Brown said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Smyth wins Senior Masters by three
Woburn, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ireland's Des Smyth posted a three-under 69
Sunday to win the Travis Perkins Senior Masters by three strokes.
Smyth finished the event at 10-under-par 206. The victory was Smyth's third on
the European Seni
<< TV ratings for Notre Dame opener up 77 percent
NEW YORK (AP) -The start of the Brian Kelly era attracted a large television audience for Notre Dame.Saturday's preliminary rating was up 77 percent from last year's opener. NBC said Sunday that the Fighting Irish's 23-12 win over Purdue drew a 2.3
<< Slovenia routs Australia to reach quarterfinals
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jaka Lakovic scored 19 points in
Slovenia's 87-58 rout of Australia to reach the quarterfinals of the 2010 FIBA
World Championships.
Primoz Brezec added 12 points for Slovenia, which will play
<< 2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 5th
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Slovenia 87, Australia 58
Turkey vs. France, 2 p.m.
Veteran coach Jack Crowe leads JSU to huge victory >>
OXFORD, Miss. (AP) -Jack Crowe has been coaching football for 40 years, but even he was at a loss to describe how Jacksonville State pulled off the unthinkable with a 49-48 double-overtime victory over Mississippi on Saturday.Not only was it undoubt
Defense comes up big for Mountaineers >>
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) -West Virginia is accustomed to scoring in bunches. What stood out after the season opener was an effort unseen from its defense in quite some time.The Mountaineers earned their first home shutout win in 13 years on Saturday,
Clijsters, Venus roll into quarterfinals in New York >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Kim Clijsters
and Venus Williams each recorded straight-set victories in fourth-round play
Sunday at the 2010 U.S. Open.
Clijsters needed just 59 minutes to post a 6-2 ,6-1
Verdasco moves on to fourth round at U.S. Open >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fernando Verdasco was a third-round
winner Sunday at the U.S. Open.
The eighth-seeded Spaniard dispatched Argentina's David Nalbandian 6-2, 3-6,
6-3, 6-2. Verdasco was a quarter-finalist here l
Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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